Churchill on the folly of appeasing China in the South China Sea

The waters of the South China Sea are frothing with a familiar, dangerous arrogance. As I observe the latest reports from the Pacific, where the Chinese Coast Guard has once again resorted to the crude tactic of ramming Philippine vessels—first the BRP Datu Magat Salamat off Palawan, and now blocking crucial humanitarian supplies to Second Thomas Shoal—I am reminded that dictators are rarely pacified by the quiet waters of diplomacy. When a revisionist power begins treating international sea lanes as its personal backyard pond, the free world must sit up, take notice, and prepare to act with iron resolve.

For years, Manila has relied on a grounded, rusted relic of the Second World War, the BRP Sierra Madre, to stand sentinel over its sovereign rights at Second Thomas Shoal. To expect this brave, skeletal garrison to withstand the relentless squeezing of Beijing's maritime militia is a strategic delusion. The so-called 'provisional arrangement' struck in 2024 has proved as flimsy as a wet newspaper. This week, while leaders in Washington hosted summits to discuss 'risk management' and trade truces, Chinese cutters were actively endangering Filipino sailors in open defiance of the 2016 international arbitral ruling. To talk of management while our ally's hull is being bashed is the very definition of looking at a storm through a keyhole.

We must offer more than hand-wringing and diplomatic communiqués. A bully understands only the language of superior force. First, we must aggressively bolster the defensive capabilities of the first island chain. Taiwan's recent transfer of a patrol vessel to the Philippines is a commendable step, as are Japan's discussions on nuclear-powered submarines. But the United States and her allies must go further. We must establish persistent, joint maritime patrols in these disputed waters. A united flotilla of democratic nations, sailing under the banner of international law, will establish a wall of steel that no coast guard cutter would dare to ram. By demonstrating an unwavering commitment to collective defense, we can halt Beijing’s creeping expansionism before a single shot is fired, preserving both peace and liberty.

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. Let us not feed the dragon with our hesitations. The South China Sea is not a private Chinese lake; it is a vital artery of global commerce and a testing ground for the survival of international law. If we permit the bullying of the Philippines to pass without a robust, physical response, we invite a much larger conflict tomorrow. It is time to clear the deck, deploy our joint fleets, and show that the seas remain forever free.